A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
